Trading news

The US Dollar (USD) enters December under pressure, with markets heavily pricing in a Fed rate cut next week amid a softer labor market and the scheduled end of quantitative tightening, DBS' Senior FX Strategist Philip Wee notes.

The United States (US) Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for November is due for release today at 15:00 GMT.

The US Dollar is attempting to bounce up from 155.15 lows during the European session, although it remains capped below the 155.35 level so far.

EUR/GBP implied volatility jumps above realised levels to the highest since the 2022 Mini Budget, reflecting market caution ahead of tomorrow’s UK Budget announcement, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

India Infrastructure Output (YoY) registered at 0.4%, below expectations (3.6%) in October

India Cumulative Industrial Output declined to 2.7% in September from previous 3%

USD/CNH dips to levels not seen since October 2024 as China’s private-sector manufacturing contracts, though the Chinese Yuan’s (CNH) undervaluation limits economic strain, BBH FX analysts report.

The Euro (EUR) remains undervalued versus the US Dollar (USD) despite Ukraine peace developments, while weak German business sentiment points to limited near-term upside, though EUR/USD could climb above 1.160 in the coming weeks, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

The Japanese yen gained as BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a potential December rate hike, boosting market expectations and suggesting a lower USD/JPY in line with bond yield spreads, BBH FX analysts report.

The AUD/USD pair trades calmly near 0.6550 during the European trading session on Monday. The Aussie pair consolidates while the US Dollar (USD) refreshes the two-week low, signaling that the Australian Dollar is also underperforming its currency peers.

EUR/JPY trades lower around 180.50 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.35% on the day. The move reflects a clear strengthening of the Japanese Yen (JPY) following fresh comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, which revived expectations of an imminent policy rate hike.

The final Swiss growth figures for the third quarter, published on Friday, were ultimately as poor as the initial estimate of growth adjusted for sport events, standing at -0.5% quarter-on-quarter. This was slightly below expectations, with the Bloomberg consensus predicting a contraction of 0.4%.

The US Dollar (USD) opens December weaker as narrowing rate differentials weigh on the greenback, while markets await November ISM manufacturing data and anticipate President Trump’s Fed chair nomination, BBH FX analysts report.

Silver (XAG/USD) rallies further on Monday and is on track for a 15% appreciation over the last six trading days, after reaching fresh record highs at $57.88.

With tariff tensions stabilising, policy makers’ focus has returned to domestic demand and innovation. GDP growth target likely to be set at 4.5-5.0% for 2026, with supportive macro policies.

Copper surged to a record high on Friday amid a volatile trading session after an hours-long halt on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange disrupted markets. The renewed bullish momentum in Copper follows an upbeat CESCO Week event in Shanghai, which reinforced expectations of tighter supply.

For almost six months now, the euro has returned to its usual environment of recent years, characterised by low euro movement. When we observe movements in EUR/USD, almost all of them originate from the US Dollar (USD).

Oil prices are trading firmer this morning, with Brent up more than 1.1% at the time of writing, following additional attacks on Russian energy infrastructure over the weekend, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) below expectations (£6.4B) in October: Actual (£5.4B)

United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY) dipped from previous 3.6% to 3.5% in October