Trading news

HSBC economists argue Emerging Markets (EM) remain well positioned in 2026 as the US Dollar (USD) weakens and global policy easing supports a broadening of returns beyond US mega-cap tech.

EUR/USD consolidates with minor losses after a volatile start to the week as traders assess evolving geopolitical developments in the Middle East, while price action remains driven by the US Dollar (USD) and Oil price dynamics.

MUFG economists highlight that the Swiss Franc (CHF) has underperformed as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) leans against currency strength and downplays current inflation.

Societe Generale economist Kunal Kundu expects India’s April headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation to rise to 3.9% year-on-year from 3.4% in March, driven by food-and-beverages and fuel components.

The US President Donald Trump is meeting with his national security team, considering the possibility of resuming military action against Iran, as Tehran’s response fell short of complying with Washington’s demands, three officials said to Axios.

United States 3-Year Note Auction rose from previous 3.897% to 3.965%

US equity index futures opened the week little changed as Wall Street weighed a renewed flare-up in the US-Iran standoff against this week's marquee inflation print.

Donald Trump, United States (US) President, said that Iran’s proposal was “stupid” and that they agreed on his terms but then reversed on them. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil posts strong gains on Monday, with the US benchmark trading around $94.70 at the time of writing, up 3.18% on the day after opening the week with a significant bullish gap.

The Pound Sterling holds modestly firm during the North American session, down a minimal 0.06% as pressure mounts on the UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer as his party sustained losses in local elections. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3625 after hitting a daily high of 1.3630.

AUD/USD surges toward the 0.7260 region on Monday, supported by improving demand for commodity-linked currencies despite renewed geopolitical tensions after United States (US) President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, calling it “totally unacceptable.”

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the Euro (EUR) is slightly softer versus the Dollar (USD), struggling against resistance in the upper 1.17s as softer European Central Bank (ECB) expectations weigh, partly offset by better risk sentiment.

BNP Paribas economists expect the US economy to grow above potential in 2026, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 2.4% and inflation overshooting at 3.5%. They see the Fed Funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adopts a two-sided outlook.

MUFG analysts argue that the Swedish Krona is underperforming as the Riksbank, central bank of Sweden, stays cautious despite the energy shock.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) regains traction against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with USD/CHF pulling back after opening the week with a bullish gap as the Greenback gives up part of its earlier gains while traders continue to monitor developments in the Middle East.

OCBC’s FX Christopher Wong describes USD/JPY as a two-way trade after suspected Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervention capped gains near 160. He notes bearish daily momentum but says fundamentals are not decisively Japanese Yen (JPY)-positive, with higher Oil prices still a drag.

TD Securities strategists expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to hold its policy rate at 2.25% through 2026 before returning to a 2.75% neutral level in 2027 via 25 bp hikes in January and March.

Silver (XAG/USD) extends its rally on Monday and trades around $84.85 at the time of writing, up 5.60% on the day. The white metal continues its bullish momentum, breaking to fresh two-month highs, supported by strong safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

ING’s Chris Turner notes the Dollar has started the week slightly stronger as hopes for a Middle East ceasefire fade and Oil prices jump. He highlights US April Consumer Price Index (CPI) as the key release, with expectations for higher headline and core inflation.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is a mild outperformer versus the US Dollar (USD), supported by firmer Oil, even as USD/CAD trades about one standard deviation above their fair value estimate.