Trading news

Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu notes that India’s March Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth slowed to 4.1% year-on-year from 5.2% in February, the weakest in five months, with the eight-core sector contracting and power output softening.

TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to stay on hold until September as it assesses the Iran conflict’s impact and monitors inflation.

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen writes that suspected MoF/BoJ intervention has strengthened the Japanese Yen (JPY), but questions how long gains will last. Markets still doubt the Bank of Japan's (BoJ willingness to respond forcefully to inflation, and see the JPY as a G10 laggard.

BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that Oil remains driven by conflicting forces, with U.S. escort plans in the Strait of Hormuz initially knocking prices lower before renewed attacks lifted them again.

Societe Generale economists flag rising political risk around Prime Minister Keir Starmer ahead of 7 May local elections. A weak result could trigger a leadership challenge, though the lack of a clear successor may delay moves until the September conference.

USD/CAD edges higher on Monday as rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, amid the ongoing US–Iran standoff, support the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3617, up nearly 0.22% on the day.

BNP Paribas economists expect United Kingdom (UK) growth to slow to 0.7% in 2026 from 1.4% in 2025, with quarterly expansion dropping to about 0.1%.

United States Factory Orders (MoM) above expectations (0.5%) in March: Actual (1.5%)

Silver (XAG/USD) starts the week on a negative note, trading around $73.50 at the time of writing, down 2.41% on Monday. The white metal is facing profit-taking amid a strengthening US Dollar (USD) and rising US Treasury yields.

TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir anticipate a normalization in United States (US) labor data, with nonfarm payrolls at 80k, unemployment at 4.3% and modest wage growth.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister expects EUR/CHF to rise in coming months as the Euro (EUR) recovers and markets push back Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate hikes, with the bank’s strategy combining verbal intervention and steady rates.

In an interview with Fox News on Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US is opening up the Strait of Hormuz and added that they have "absolute control" of it, per Reuters.

BNY’s Bob Savage highlights comments from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy member Prasanna Gai, who argues the Strait of Hormuz supply shock does not warrant automatic rate hikes.

BNP Paribas economists expect the United States (US) economy to grow above potential in 2026, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 2.4% and inflation at 3.3%, while the Fed Funds target range is seen steady at 3.5%-3.75%.

Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 49 to 52.6 in April

TD Securities’ Robert Both and Emma Lawrence expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep the Overnight Rate at 2.25% through 2026, before lifting it back to a 2.75% neutral level in early 2027.

Societe Generale economists note that firm and consumer confidence fell more than expected in April, with Commission indices at multi‑year lows. Despite slightly positive 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP), domestic demand appears subdued and credit conditions are tightening.

South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales dipped from previous 58060 to 47979 in April

Gold (XAU/USDS) kicks off the week under pressure, hovering near one-month lows as hawkish interest rate expectations continue to weigh on the non-yielding metal amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,560, down nearly 1.10% on the day.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights strong market conviction that the RBA will deliver a third consecutive rate hike, with futures implying a 75% probability. Inflation and expectations remain well above target and RBA rhetoric has turned more hawkish.