Trading news

TD Securities strategists expect the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) to embed significantly higher Oil assumptions, with Brent at USD 90 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at USD 85, versus a prior USD 55 WTI baseline.

Commerzbank's Dr. Jörg Krämer and Bernd Weidensteiner expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave rates unchanged next week but still project a June hike if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and inflation risks persist.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that stronger-than-expected United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales, driven largely by fuel purchases, have supported the Pound (GBP), though broader UK data still point to a softer growth outlook.

According to reports by ABC News, the US Department of Justice (DoJ) is expected to drop its investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday, which could delay the confirmation of Trump’s appointee, Kevin Warsh, to become the next chief of the US central bank.

ING analysts Frantisek Taborsky and Zoltán Homolya expect central bank of the Hungary, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) to keep its base rate unchanged at 6.25% throughout 2026.

TD Securities economists, including Julie Ioffe and colleagues, expect the Bank of England to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% in a unanimous decision, maintaining a wait-and-see stance.

United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations came in at 4.7%, below expectations (4.8%) in April

United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index above expectations (46.1) in April: Actual (48.1)

United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index registered at 49.8 above expectations (47.6) in April

United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation registered at 3.5% above expectations (3.4%) in April

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes USD/JPY is consolidating just below 160.00 after slightly hotter March Consumer Price Index (CPI) that leaves Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations unchanged for now.

National Bank of Canada (NBC) analysts Ethan Currie and Taylor Schleich expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its overnight target at 2.25%, extending a fourth consecutive hold.

The latest Reuters surveys highlight a gradual shift toward tighter monetary policy expectations in the Eurozone, with a more pronounced tightening bias than previously anticipated.

Commerzbank's Dr. Jörg Krämer and Bernd Weidensteiner expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% at the upcoming meeting, resisting political pressure for cuts as inflation remains above target and oil-driven price shocks persist.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades flat on Friday, lacking clear direction as upside remains capped by Oil-driven inflation linked to ongoing US-Iran tensions, which have raised expectations of a prolonged higher interest rate environment.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed as USD/CAD retreats from repeated tests of the low 1.37 area.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny links the prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure to rising Oil and input costs, with agricultural and fuel prices already surging. Halpenny assumes crude Oil averages USD 115 in Q2, lifting US inflation toward 3.8% later this year.

USD/JPY trades around 159.50 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.14% on the day and ending a sequence of four consecutive days of gains. The move comes amid a pullback in the US Dollar (USD), as improving market sentiment reduces demand for safe-haven assets.

BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that earlier supportive flows into the Norwegian Krone from energy prices and hawkish Norges Bank policy are now fading. Commodity FX momentum is softening, with NOK seeing outflows as hedge demand unwinds and policy expectations peak.

Societe Generale analysts highlight that stronger‑than‑forecast United Kingdom (UK) inflation and PMIs (Purchasing Managers' Index) raise the question of a potential hawkish dissent at next week’s Bank of England (BoE) meeting, even though the house view is for a unanimous hold.