Trading news

Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu analyses how the Iran conflict exposes India’s macro vulnerabilities through imported energy dependence and trade route risks. Kundu highlights broad spillovers from higher Oil and gas prices into the consumption basket and external balances.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with AUD/USD extending losses for a fourth straight day as the Greenback remains broadly supported amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

DBS Group Research sees South Korea’s March exports remaining in double-digit growth, supported by strong AI and data centre demand, higher memory prices and supply shortages, leading to a wider trade surplus despite rising import costs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled on Friday, shedding roughly 510 points or 1.1% to fall below 45,500 and officially enter correction territory.

NZD/USD falls for the fourth consecutive day and trades around 0.5750 on Friday, down 0.17% on the day at the time of writing, pressured by renewed risk aversion and the resilience of the US Dollar (USD).

ING’s Deepali Bhargava warns that higher Oil prices and supply disruptions are worsening growth, inflation and external balances in the Philippines.

United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count down to 409 from previous 414

Standard Chartered’s Dan Pan and Erwin He note that Banxico’s surprise 25 bps cut and guidance for another easing step have increased downside risks for the Mexican Peso (MXN). They highlight crowded MXN long positioning and a narrower carry advantage versus other EM high-yielders.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil rises sharply and trades around $96.00 at the time of writing on Friday, up 3.55% on the day.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Richmond President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that it is prudent to keep interest rates steady for now, as policymakers await greater clarity on the economic outlook.

The British Pound holds firm during the North American session, clings above the 1.3300 figure, yet seems poised to finish the week with 0.20% losses against the US Dollar.

EUR/USD edges higher on Friday after early weakness, as the US Dollar (USD) pulls back from intraday highs, offering some support to the Euro (EUR). At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1545, recovering from a daily low at 1.1501.

ING notes that ECB officials have offered little resistance to hawkish market pricing as Oil rises, reinforcing front-end EUR rate expectations.

Thu Lan Nguyen at Commerzbank has revised Gold forecasts higher, now seeing USD 5,000 per ounce by end-2026 and USD 5,200 next year, despite a recent 15% drop.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Claire Fan and Abbey Xu expect Canadian GDP to be essentially flat in January after December’s 0.2% gain, with weakness concentrated in autos and housing but offset by energy and retail.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $68.50 on Friday at the time of writing, up 0.59% on the day, supported by renewed investor interest. Despite this uptick, the white metal remains within a broadly sideways trend, as market participants stay cautious amid an uncertain macroeconomic environment.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report EUR/USD has slipped slightly below yesterday’s low as Dollar strength persists. ECB data show moderating inflation expectations, while President Lagarde signaled caution on rate moves given energy-price risks.

ING’s Chris Turner notes that Banxico’s 25 bp rate cut to 6.75% came with largely unchanged inflation forecasts and a projection of a return to target in early 2027.

GBP/JPY trades flat on Friday after slipping earlier in the European session, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened amid rising intervention fears. The move comes as USD/JPY trades within striking distance of the 160.00 level, a key zone that previously prompted action from Japanese authorities.

United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations above forecasts (3.4%) in March: Actual (3.8%)