Trading news

MUFG strategists say EUR/USD has retreated toward the middle of its 1.1400–1.2000 range as the Euro faces headwinds from the Middle East energy shock and weaker euro-zone PMIs.

GBP/USD trades around 1.3565 on Monday, up 0.23% on the day, supported by a weaker US Dollar in a context of improving risk appetite.

ING’s Chris Turner highlights unusually low USD/JPY volatility despite multiple global risks and key central bank meetings. Their economists warn markets underprice the risk of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike and possible upward revisions to inflation forecasts.

BNY's Bob Savage notes that the US Dollar (USD) is slightly softer as record-high equities hold despite higher Oil prices and mixed United States (US) futures.

Gold (XAU/USD) holds firm at the start of the week as fresh US-Iran headlines improve market sentiment, even after talks over the weekend failed to materialize. At the time of writing, the metal is trading around $4,704, little changed on the day after hitting an intraday peak of $4,730.

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee notes that Brent has climbed back above $100 per barrel as geopolitical risks intensify. The move comes ahead of the War Powers Resolution vote, with markets focused on the potential for an unauthorized extension of US operations and a dual blockade scenario.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is rallying against a weaker US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Monday, reaching session highs above 0.5900 at the time of writing, after bouncing at lows around 0.5840 on Friday.

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux and colleagues note that EUR/GBP has formed a lower high near 0.8740 and is struggling above its 200‑day moving average, with price action resembling a Head and Shoulders pattern.

Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ up to $2.499B in March from previous $-1.09B

Mexico Trade Balance, $: $5.932B (March) vs $-0.463B

HSBC strategists highlight that the Japanese Yen (JPY) has been the weakest G10 currency month-to-date, with USD/JPY trading in an unusually narrow range despite Japan’s large net energy import status and Gulf exposure.

ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey observe that managed money net long positions in COMEX Gold have declined, with investors turning more cautious.

BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that China has criticized the European Union's (EU) proposed Industrial Accelerator Act as discriminatory, warning of possible countermeasures that could affect trade and investor confidence.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds its losses suffered after giving back opening gains around 98.30 during the European trading session on Monday, ahead of the United States (US) markets opening.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) accelerates its rally against a weak US Dollar (USD) on Monday, reaching 10-day highs at 0.7190 at the time of writing, after bouncing from lows near 0.7100 last week.

Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes notes the US Dollar (USD) is currently soft as markets react to hopes of a Gulf peace deal and the end of a United States (US) Department of Justice (DoJ) probe into Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell.

EUR/USD trades around 1.1740 on Monday, up 0.21% on the day, extending Friday’s rebound from the 1.1670 area, despite a more fragile macroeconomic backdrop in the Eurozone.

Gold’s (XAU/USD) has opened the week in the same cautious mood that ended the last one. The precious metal keeps hovering within a tight range around $4,700 at the time of writing, with doji candles on the daily chart highlighting an indecisive market.

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil has rallied strongly as US-Iran peace talks stall and energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained.

The Euro (EUR) is trimming some losses against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday after finding support at the 0.8655 area late last week. Upside attempts, however, remain capped below a previous support area at 0.8670 so far, which leaves the broader bearish trend in play for now.