Trading news

The AUD/USD pair steadies on Friday, posting a slight decline after a four-day strike of gains, trading with a cautious tone amid fresh data releases in the US and geopolitical risks.

Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (0.5%) in March: Actual (0.6%)

Iran's ‌parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said on Friday that two previously agreed measures, a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran's blocked assets, must be implemented before negotiations begin, according to Reuters.

TD Securities strategists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence note that Canadian labour markets showed a modest rebound in March, with 14k jobs added and the unemployment rate steady at 6.7%.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur expects the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to deliver two further rate hikes in 2026, taking policy closer to a rising neutral rate and supporting a modest Japanese Yen appreciation versus Dollar (USD) and Euro (EUR) in the second half of the year.

Wells Fargo’s international economics team notes that a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East leaves Oil market risks elevated and conviction on the outlook low.

American consumer confidence deflated in early April, as households grew more pessimistic about current conditions and the broader economic outlook, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan.

The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with EUR/USD extending gains for a fifth straight day, as improving risk sentiment following the US-Iran ceasefire announcement offsets the impact of firm US inflation data and keeps the Greenback under pressure.

Oscar Munoz and the TD Securities US macro team judge that, although core CPI surprised on the soft side and tariff pass-through moderated, it is too early for markets to extrapolate a dovish signal.

ING’s Senior Economist Min Joo Kang notes that the Bank of Korea kept its policy rate at 2.5% and stressed a data-dependent stance as inflation pressures rise and GDP growth projections weaken.

Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner notes that U.S. inflation jumped to 3.3% in March, driven mainly by higher gasoline prices linked to the war in Iran, while core inflation remains moderate.

United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 46.1 (April) vs previous 51.7

United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.8% (April) vs 3.8%

United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation increased to 3.4% in April from previous 3.2%

United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index registered at 47.6, below expectations (52) in April

United States Factory Orders (MoM) came in at 0%, above expectations (-0.2%) in February

UBS economist Paul Donovan discusses how visible Oil prices at fuel stations interact with changing consumer behavior in major economies.

Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, told FOX Business on Friday that the Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook for having room to cut rates will be very solid. He also claimed the Hormuz Strait can be reopened within two months, saying they have backup plans to reopen it.

Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Nathan Janzen notes that Canadian labour market conditions steadied in March, with a modest employment gain and an unemployment rate holding at 6.7%.

Scotiabank’s strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Euro is extending consolidation around 1.17 after sentiment-driven gains linked to easing geopolitical concerns. They highlight constructive risk reversals, supportive yield spreads and reduced demand for downside protection.