Trading news

ING’s James Smith notes that UK inflation rose to 3.3% in March on higher fuel costs and is likely to move towards 3.5–4% later in 2026, helped by July’s increase in household energy bills.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights that President Trump’s ceasefire extension has offered only limited relief, with Oil near USD 100 and risk sentiment deteriorating.

Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds on Wednesday, trimming a portion of the losses recorded on the previous day. The move follows the announcement by US President Donald Trump extending the ceasefire with Iran just hours before it was due to expire.

The US Dollar (USD) is trading practically flat, right above 159.00 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Wednesday, consolidating Tuesday’s gains amid cautious markets. Most US Dollar crosses remain moving within previous ranges as the situation in the Middle East deteriorates.

Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes argues EUR/USD is likely to stay range-bound as geopolitical risks and US policy uncertainty offset economic fundamentals. He notes two-year rate differentials point to EUR/USD near 1.14–1.17, while consensus GDP suggests 1.14 is appropriate.

Commerzbank economists Bernd Weidensteiner and Christoph Balz assess the implications of Kevin Warsh’s potential appointment as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair for US monetary policy.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann observe that USD/JPY climbed to 159.37 as the Dollar strengthened. They see scope for a retest of 159.65, with limited follow-through above that level, and expect a broader 157.55–160.50 range.

The EUR/USD pair trades flat at around 1.1745 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair consolidates while the US Dollar (USD) edges lower amid hopes of a prolonged standoff between the United States (US) and Iran.

BNY’s Bob Savage notes that Australia’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index has slipped below trend, signaling weaker growth ahead as higher rates and the Middle East energy shock weigh on activity.

GBP/USD trades around 1.3515 on Wednesday, gaining a modest 0.06% at the time of writing, as investors digest the latest inflation figures from the United Kingdom (UK) and assess the outlook for monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and head of Lithuania's central bank, Gediminas Simkus, said during European trading hours on Wednesday that an interest rate hike this year cannot be ruled out.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that United Kingdom (UK) inflation remains persistently above target, limiting the Bank of England’s (BoE) ability to ignore the energy shock. However, he argues current BoE rate hike expectations are excessive given estimated economic slack.

Rabobank’s Global Strategist Michael Every highlights mounting European energy and geopolitical pressures, including disrupted Oil flows via Druzhba and potential EU financing for Ukraine.

Silver (XAG/USD) nudges higher on Wednesday, but remains at the lower range of Tuesday’s trading, consolidating below $78.00 and with the previous support area of $78.50 capping upside attempts, for now.

South Africa Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 1.6%, below expectations (4.8%) in February

United States MBA Mortgage Applications climbed from previous 1.8% to 7.9% in April 17

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), future on NYMEX, claws back its early losses and flattens around $89.60 during the European trading session on Wednesday.

The US Dollar (USD) posts minor losses against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on Wednesday, and is testing session lows below 1.3650 at the time of writing, following rejection at the 1.3675 area on Tuesday.

ING strategist Francesco Pesole argues that EUR/GBP has limited further downside after slipping below 0.8700, as United Kingdom (UK) political risks and stretched Bank of England (BoE) tightening expectations offset risk-on pressures.

EUR/JPY trades around 187.25 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up a modest 0.05% on the day. The cross remains supported by relative stability in the Euro (EUR) as investors assess the impact of geopolitical tensions and diverging monetary policy expectations between Europe and Japan.