Trading news

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in the US rose 2.7% on a yearly basis in March, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed the 3.2% increase recorded in February and came in below the market expectation of 3.3%.

Germany Current Account n.s.a. increased to €20B in February from previous €11.8B

United States Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.7% below forecasts (3.3%) in March

United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) below expectations (3.6%) in March: Actual (3.3%)

United States Producer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.2%) in March: Actual (-0.4%)

United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) below expectations (0.3%) in March: Actual (-0.1%)

The US Dollar Index (DXY) bounced from a fresh three-year low of 99.02 achieved on Friday amid escalating tensions between China and the United States (US). The index currently hovers around 99.70, sharply down for a second consecutive day.

In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said that their job is to make sure that inflation expectations don't rise, per Reuters.

Mexico Industrial Output (YoY) came in at -1.3%, above expectations (-3.9%) in February

Brazil IPCA Inflation meets forecasts (0.56%) in March

India FX Reserves, USD up to $676.27B in March 31 from previous $665.4B

On Friday, Beijing dramatically ramped up tariffs on US imports to 125%, striking back at President Trump's move to hike duties on Chinese goods to 145%. This countermeasure has ramped up the tension in a trade war that now threatens to upend global supply chains.

The tariff conflict triggered by US President Trump and the resulting increase in risk aversion also put pressure on the Platinum and Palladium prices.

The March data on gold ETFs published by the World Gold Council this week showed a continued high buying interest among ETF investors, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Oversupply fears push oil price outlook lower

The OPEC production surveys by Reuters and Bloomberg again showed a considerable discrepancy for March, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Scope for US Dollar (USD) to continue to weaken vs Chinese Yuan (CNH); any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 7.2430.

The price of Russian ESPO crude fell below $60 per barrel for the first time at the beginning of the week, while the price of Urals fell towards $50 per barrel, the lowest price level since March 2023, according to Reuters, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

While deeply oversold, further USD weakness is not ruled out; next support level is at 142.50. In the longer run, renewed momentum suggests USD is likely to continue to decline; mid-term support levels are at 142.50 and 139.55, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Despite the current turbulence in the US dollar, we see short-term recovery potential for the US currency.