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16 Sep 2024
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Remains capped under descending trend channel near 1.1100
- EUR/USD trades on a stronger note near 1.1095 in Monday’s Asian session.
- The pair keeps the positive outlook above the 100-period EMA, with the bullish RSI indicator.
- The immediate resistance level emerges at the 1.1100-1.1105 region; the initial support level is located at 1.1072.
The EUR/USD pair gains ground around 1.1095 amid the softer US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading hours on Monday. Investors will closely monitor the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting on Wednesday for more cues about how aggressively the Fed will bring down interest rates.
EUR/USD remains capped under the descending trend channel on the four-hour chart. However, the constructive view of the major pair prevails as the price holds above the key 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Additionally, the upward momentum is supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 63.65, suggesting the path of least resistance is to the upside.
A decisive break above the 1.1100-1.1105 zone, the psychological level and the upper boundary of the trend channel could see a rally to 1.1155, the high of September 6. Further north, the next upside barrier is seen near 1.1200, the high of August 26.
On the other hand, the low of September 14 at 1.1072 acts as an initial support level for the major pair. The next cushion level to watch is 1.1061, the 100-period EMA. A breach of the mentioned level could see a drop to 1.1026, the low of September 3. The additional downside filter emerges at 1.0985, the lower limit of the trend channel.
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.