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16 Sep 2024
AUD/JPY attracts some sellers below 94.50, eyes on Australian employment data and BoJ rate decision this week
- AUD/JPY extends its downside near 94.25 in Monday’s early European session, down 0.18% on the day.
- Economists expect the BoJ to raise interest rates further by the end of this year.
- The concerns about the Chinese economic slowdown further weigh on the China-proxy AUD.
The AUD/JPY cross extends decline around 94.25 on Monday during the early European session. The stronger Japanese Yen (JPY) and the hawkish vibes ahead of the key Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision on Friday drag the cross lower.
The BoJ will likely not raise interest rates at its September policy meeting on Friday, but a majority of economists in a Reuters poll still expect a hike by year-end. This, in turn, supports the JPY and weighs on the AUD/JPY cross. Junki Iwahashi, senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, noted that the Japanese central bank is anticipated to proceed cautiously with rate hikes at a pace of about once every six months while assessing the impact of monetary tightening on the domestic economy.
On the Aussie front, renewed signs of deflation and a sluggish economy in China continue to undermine the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD). It’s worth noting that China is Australia's largest trading partner, and negative developments surrounding the Chinese economy generally weigh on the AUD.
On Thursday, the Australian employment data will be released. The country’s Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.2% in August, while Employment Change is estimated to show a 30.8K rise in the same month from 58.2 in July. If the Australian labor market data shows stronger momentum, this could lift the Aussie and cap the cross’s downside.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.