DXY: Slight retracement ahead? – OCBC

US Dollar (USD) traded a touch firmer on release of delayed Sep jobs report. DXY was last at 100.12 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

2-way trades likely to persist

"NFP +119k, much higher than +53k expectations though unemployment rate crept higher at 4.4%. Nevertheless, this painted the job market before the government shutdown and does not reflect the labour market conditions today. The probability of Dec cut has been reduced to 31% but quantum of cut for 2026 remained. This probably explained why the USD did not go a lot higher as only near-term expectation was affected."

"Mild bullish momentum on daily chart observed while rise in RSI moderated. 2-way trades likely to persist though we may be slight bias for some retracement lower. Support at 99.50/70 levels (21 DMA, 61.8% fibo), 99.10 (50% fibo retracement of May high to Sep low). Resistance at 100.6 (76.4% fibo)."