USD/CAD drifts lower as Canadian Retail Sales surprise to the upside

• USD/CAD extends its decline as strong Canadian Retail Sales and broad USD weakness lift the Loonie.
• US Dollar remains pressured by policy uncertainty and Fed independence concerns.
• Focus shifts to US PMI data, UoM sentiment and next week’s BoC and Fed meetings.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) extends gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, supported by a broadly softer Greenback and stronger-than-expected Canadian Retail Sales data. At the time of writing, USD/CAD trades around 1.3767, marking a fifth consecutive daily decline.

Data released by Statistics Canada showed that Retail Sales rose 1.3% MoM in November, beating market expectations of 1.2% and rebounding sharply from October’s 0.3% decline.

Retail Sales excluding autos were even stronger, climbing 1.7% on the month, above forecasts of 1.2%, after falling 0.6% in October.

The rebound in retail activity supports the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) wait-and-see approach after inflation data released earlier this week showed easing monthly price pressures, even as annual inflation remains sticky above the BoC’s 2% target. On a yearly basis, CPI accelerated to 2.4% in December from 2.2% in November, while the BoC’s core CPI measure eased slightly to 2.8% from 2.9%.

Markets widely expect the BoC to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% at next week’s meeting. In its December policy statement, the BoC said that ‘if inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment.’

The central bank also stressed that ‘uncertainty remains elevated’ and added that if the outlook shifts materially, it stands ‘prepared to respond.’”

Steady Oil prices add another layer of support to the Loonie, given Canada’s status as a major energy exporter. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $61 per barrel, up nearly 2.7% on the day.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains under sustained pressure despite some easing in US-EU trade tensions, as President Trump’s protectionist trade agenda and growing interference with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence continue to weigh on investor sentiment.

Looking ahead, traders await the release of preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. Markets are also widely expecting the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its January 27-28 monetary policy meeting.