RBA’s Hauser: Focused on preventing rise in inflation expectations
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, speaking in a fireside chat earlier this Tuesday, warned that Australia is facing a difficult macroeconomic backdrop. Elevated inflation and constrained supply capacity raise the risk of a stagflation-style scenario if energy shocks persist, Hauser noted.
Additional Quotes:
Inflation in Australia remains too high, and underlying supply constraints continue to limit the economy’s ability to absorb shocks.
A key concern is the surge in energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict, which is characterized as a significant income shock for Australia.
Higher energy costs are eroding household purchasing power and increasing input costs for businesses, raising questions about how strongly activity may slow in response.
The RBA is focused on preventing any lift in medium-term inflation expectations, which could entrench price pressures and make inflation more persistent.
Market Reaction:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) reacts little to Hauser’s comments, though the hawkish outlook backs the case for a further appreciating move beyond the 0.7100 mark, or a nearly four-week high, touched earlier this Tuesday.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.