AUD: Diesel supply risks and export exposure – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights Australia’s growing dependence on imported diesel, with around 87% of demand met by imports in 2025. He warns that any diesel supply bottlenecks could hit the mining sector, which consumes a large share of diesel and generates about half of exports, potentially pressuring the Australian Dollar. Current shipping data, however, show no immediate disruption.

Import reliance could weigh on currency

"Australia’s crude oil production has been declining for many years, and with the closure of refineries, the country’s dependence on imports for petroleum products has also increased."

"While Australia still produced 60% of its diesel domestically in 2009, by 2025, approximately 87% of diesel demand had to be met through imports."

"The largest consumer of diesel is the mining industry. It is estimated that mining accounts for about 10 of the approximately 35 billion liters consumed annually in Australia. "

"Should supply bottlenecks in diesel occur, the industry sector responsible for around 50% of Australian exports could also be affected. Prolonged production restrictions and reduced exports could therefore put pressure on the Australian dollar."

"For the moment, therefore, supplies appear to be functioning normally. However, the risk remains as long as the problems in the Strait of Hormuz persist."

"At present, however, shipping data does not yet indicate that there have been any problems with the supply of oil and oil products. In March, 265 oil tankers docked at Australian ports - the highest number in two years. While the first 11 days of April point to a figure around 220, this is not cause for concern but rather in line with recent months."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)