Gold holds steady above $4,800 amid US-Iran ceasefire uncertainty
- Gold price flat lines around $4,825 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- Traders will closely monitor the Middle East developments as the US-Iran ceasefire expiry looms.
- The US March Retail Sales data will be published later on Tuesday.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades on a flat note near $4,825 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal steadies amid renewed geopolitical instability in the Middle East.
Reuters reported on Monday that Iran is considering attending peace talks with the United States (US) in Pakistan, following moves by Islamabad to end a US blockade of Iran's ports. Nonetheless, officials stressed that no decision had been made, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that "continued violations of the ceasefire" by the US are a major obstacle to continuing the diplomatic process.
A breakdown in US-Iran peace talks and a renewed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have driven oil prices higher. Rising energy costs are stoking inflation fears, raising the bar for cutting rates. Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty, but it does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.
The US Retail Sales report will be the highlight later on Tuesday. Retail Sales is projected to show a rise of 1.4% MoM in March, compared to 0.6% in February. However, if the report shows softer-than-expected inflation in the US, this could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and support the USD-denominated commodity price.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.