India: Growth resilient but risks building – Commerzbank

Commerzbank analysts describe India’s growth backdrop as solid, with GDP expected around 6.5% in fiscal 2026–2027, supported by domestic demand, GST 2.0 reforms, and investment-friendly budgets. However, they stress downside risks from higher Oil prices, El Niño-related agricultural weakness, and external headwinds, even as fiscal consolidation and diversified energy imports help mitigate vulnerabilities.

Domestic demand offsets external headwinds

"Domestic demand is expected to be the primary driver, aided by firmer private consumption from higher wages and the GST2.0 reform."

"Furthermore, public and private domestic investments should continue to benefit from the supportive 2026-2027 Union Budget and the cumulative effects of the prior monetary easing."

"It [Government] is targeting a slightly lower budget deficit of 4.4% of GDP for the current fiscal year 2026-2027 vs 4.5% for the previous fiscal year."

"Earlier this year, the government projected a current account deficit of 1% of GDP for FY2025-2026"

"but this could climb to 2% given higher oil prices. India imports around 87% of its crude oil consumption and 46% of this comes from the Middle East, compared to over 60% before 2022."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)