Trading news

TD Securities economists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence project a sharp narrowing in Canada’s March international merchandise trade deficit to CAD 1.5 billion, driven by stronger exports on higher West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and autos.

US equities slumped on Monday as a series of escalating reports out of the Persian Gulf revived concerns that the fragile US-Iran ceasefire is fraying. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed roughly 0.9%, slipping back toward 49,000 after an intraday low below that level.

NZD/USD trades around 0.5868 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.52% on the day. The pair remains under pressure amid an environment marked by heightened geopolitical uncertainty, which typically supports safe-haven assets and the US Dollar (USD).

BNP Paribas economists project Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to slow from 1.5% in 2025 to 1.0% in 2026, with inflation rebounding to 3.0% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027.

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama returned to the verbal channel on Monday, signaling Tokyo's readiness to take decisive action against speculative foreign exchange moves under last September's bilateral agreement with the US, just two trading days after the Ministry of Finance (MoF) and Bank of Jap

EUR/GBP edges higher on Monday as ongoing tensions in the Middle East keep market volatility elevated, while political uncertainty in the UK adds modest pressure on the British Pound (GBP). At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 0.8645, recovering from an intraday low of 0.8629.

ING’s Chief Economist for Turkey, Muhammet Mercan, notes that April inflation rose more than expected, with annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching 32.4%, well above the Central Bank of Turkey’s 16% target.

GBP/USD falls on Monday as tensions in the Middle East remain high as Iran threatens US Navy to not enter the Strait of Hormuz, amid growing speculation that Tehran’s launched missiles to a US warship. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.3531, slightly down 0.34%.

The AUD/USD pair is trading with a cautious tone, hovering near the 0.7190 price zone as investors position ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision due later on Monday.

USD/JPY trades around 157.00 on Monday, virtually unchanged on the day, after a sharp move during the Asian session briefly sent the pair down to 155.71 before a swift rebound.

Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu notes that India’s March Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth slowed to 4.1% year-on-year from 5.2% in February, the weakest in five months, with the eight-core sector contracting and power output softening.

TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to stay on hold until September as it assesses the Iran conflict’s impact and monitors inflation.

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen writes that suspected MoF/BoJ intervention has strengthened the Japanese Yen (JPY), but questions how long gains will last. Markets still doubt the Bank of Japan's (BoJ willingness to respond forcefully to inflation, and see the JPY as a G10 laggard.

BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that Oil remains driven by conflicting forces, with U.S. escort plans in the Strait of Hormuz initially knocking prices lower before renewed attacks lifted them again.

Societe Generale economists flag rising political risk around Prime Minister Keir Starmer ahead of 7 May local elections. A weak result could trigger a leadership challenge, though the lack of a clear successor may delay moves until the September conference.

USD/CAD edges higher on Monday as rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, amid the ongoing US–Iran standoff, support the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3617, up nearly 0.22% on the day.

BNP Paribas economists expect United Kingdom (UK) growth to slow to 0.7% in 2026 from 1.4% in 2025, with quarterly expansion dropping to about 0.1%.

United States Factory Orders (MoM) above expectations (0.5%) in March: Actual (1.5%)

Silver (XAG/USD) starts the week on a negative note, trading around $73.50 at the time of writing, down 2.41% on Monday. The white metal is facing profit-taking amid a strengthening US Dollar (USD) and rising US Treasury yields.

TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir anticipate a normalization in United States (US) labor data, with nonfarm payrolls at 80k, unemployment at 4.3% and modest wage growth.