Trading news

AUD/USD surges toward the 0.7260 region on Monday, supported by improving demand for commodity-linked currencies despite renewed geopolitical tensions after United States (US) President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, calling it “totally unacceptable.”

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the Euro (EUR) is slightly softer versus the Dollar (USD), struggling against resistance in the upper 1.17s as softer European Central Bank (ECB) expectations weigh, partly offset by better risk sentiment.

BNP Paribas economists expect the US economy to grow above potential in 2026, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 2.4% and inflation overshooting at 3.5%. They see the Fed Funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adopts a two-sided outlook.

MUFG analysts argue that the Swedish Krona is underperforming as the Riksbank, central bank of Sweden, stays cautious despite the energy shock.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) regains traction against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with USD/CHF pulling back after opening the week with a bullish gap as the Greenback gives up part of its earlier gains while traders continue to monitor developments in the Middle East.

OCBC’s FX Christopher Wong describes USD/JPY as a two-way trade after suspected Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervention capped gains near 160. He notes bearish daily momentum but says fundamentals are not decisively Japanese Yen (JPY)-positive, with higher Oil prices still a drag.

TD Securities strategists expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to hold its policy rate at 2.25% through 2026 before returning to a 2.75% neutral level in 2027 via 25 bp hikes in January and March.

Silver (XAG/USD) extends its rally on Monday and trades around $84.85 at the time of writing, up 5.60% on the day. The white metal continues its bullish momentum, breaking to fresh two-month highs, supported by strong safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

ING’s Chris Turner notes the Dollar has started the week slightly stronger as hopes for a Middle East ceasefire fade and Oil prices jump. He highlights US April Consumer Price Index (CPI) as the key release, with expectations for higher headline and core inflation.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is a mild outperformer versus the US Dollar (USD), supported by firmer Oil, even as USD/CAD trades about one standard deviation above their fair value estimate.

MUFG analysts highlight that the Australian Dollar has outperformed since the Middle East conflict, supported by higher energy prices and a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia.

United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) registered at 4.02M, below expectations (4.05M) in April

United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) increased to 0.2% in April from previous -3.6%

BNP Paribas economists expect United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to slow to 0.7% in 2026 from 1.4% in 2025, with quarterly expansion dropping to about 0.1%. Inflation is projected to re-accelerate to 3.6% before easing only slightly.

TD Securities economists expect US inflation data to firm in April, with core Consumer Price Index (CPI) boosted by shelter and airfare components and headline CPI lifted by higher Oil and food prices.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky says Central and Eastern European (CEE) FX is benefiting from positive global sentiment, with EUR/HUF breaking to new lows below 355. Markets expect Hungary’s new Prime Minister Peter Magyar to unlock EU funds and advance Euro adoption.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses the Japanese Yen (JPY), noting that expected endorsement from the United States (US) Treasury for recent Ministry of Finance (MoF) FX intervention should support the currency in the near term.

GBP/USD recovers some ground after opening the week with a bearish gap as geopolitical headlines surrounding the Middle East continue to stir volatility across financial markets.

USD/CAD trades on a flat note around 1.3670 on Monday, down modestly by 0.05% on the day at the time of writing.

HSBC reports that the Norwegian Krone (NOK) has gained alongside other risk-on currencies versus the Dollar, supported by improved sentiment and domestic policy.