Trading news

US Dollar (USD) bounced from fresh cyclical lows, Treasury yields found footing after yesterday’s swings, and US equity futures are up. Near-term, USD can retrace more of this week’s losses before settling into its August range as yield spreads show little scope to move further against USD.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could test the support at 0.5910 before stabilising; the major support at 0.5880 is unlikely to come into view.

The Australian Dollar has turned positive on daily charts, as the risk appetite has offset the impact of downbeat Australian employment figures seen earlier today.

Markets’ initial interpretation of the Fed interest rate cut was firmly dovish: aside from Miran’s 50bp dissenting vote, the Dot Plot was revised to show two more cuts this year. The result was a drop in front-end yields and the dollar.

The US Initial Jobless Claims Overview

As widely expected, the Fed has resumed cutting interest rates with a 25bp move yesterday. They think three more cuts will be enough to boost growth and prompt a revival in the jobs market, but the market is sceptical.

Outlook is mixed; Australian Dollar (AUD) could trade in a range between 0.6635 and 0.6685. In the longer run, advance in AUD from early last week has come to an end; AUD is likely to consolidate in a range of 0.6600/0.6710, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

The Bank of England (BOE) will likely keep rates on hold today, following a hawkish cut in August. Markets are also pricing in no chance of a cut today, but the November decision still appears to be hanging in the balance.

BoC cuts rates to 2.50%, signals caution on further easing – OCBC

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range between 1.3600 and 1.3665. In the longer run, the odds of GBP rising to 1.3765 have diminished noticeably, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

GBP/USD has retreated to its breakout point after surging toward 1.3725, but with momentum gauges still supportive, holding above 1.3470 would keep the broader uptrend intact, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

EUR/JPY advances more than a quarter of a percent, trading around 174.40 during the European hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing bullish bias as the currency cross moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern.

Eurozone Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) climbed from previous 1.7% to 3.2% in July

The current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase between 1.1785 and 1.1865. In the longer run, there is still a chance, albeit not a high one for EUR to rise toward 1.1955, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Eurozone Construction Output s.a (MoM) increased to 0.5% in July from previous -0.8%

At the September meeting, the FOMC decided to lower the target range for the Fed funds rate by 25bps to 4.00-4.25%, in line with expectations, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Copper inventories at US warehouses tracked by the LME rose for the first time since December 2023, up by 175 tonnes, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction climbed from previous 3.2% to 3.23%

Spain 30-y Bond Auction increased to 4.074% from previous 3.974%