Trading news

A late Friday reprieve for consumer electronic imports from the 145% tariff on Chinese goods and the 10% flat rate tariff marks another concession to the global markets, allowing for solid gains in Asian and European equities, along with firmer US equity futures.

Gold price started the week with a small bearish gap but managed to regain its traction during the Asian trading hours. After touching a new record-high of $3,245, XAU/USD entered a consolidation phase and declined toward $3,200.

Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) below forecasts (0.4%) in February: Actual (0.3%)

In an interview with Fox Business Network on Monday, Kevin Hassett, Director of the US National Economic Council (NEC), said that they are making "enormous progress" on tariff talks with the European Union, per Reuters.

Tariff exemptions from the US offered temporary support to the dollar, but broader concerns about credibility and economic weakness continue to weigh. With market correlations breaking down and investor confidence shaken, USD pressure may persist in the near term, Danske Bank's FX analysts report.

Chance for US Dollar (USD) to dip below 7.2700; the major support at 7.2430 seems to be out of reach. In the longer run, sharp but short-lived price action has resulted in a mixed outlook; USD is likely to trade between 7.2430 and 7.3700 for now.

The latest version of market inflation expectations, published on Friday by Turkey’s central bank (CBT) showed inflation expectation for end-2025 rising by 2pp from 28% to 30%. The margin is not insignificant.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 142.30/144.30 range vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, USD could continue to decline, but given the deeply oversold conditions, it remains to be seen if 139.55 is within reach, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

In addition to the flight to safe havens, the prospect of a further normalisation of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan is also likely to have supported the yen recently. According to statements made by BoJ Chairman Kazuo Ueda this morning, however, the central bank is leaving all options open.

The US Dollar (USD) continues to face an intense selling pressure, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) sliding to near 99.50. The USD Index has extended its losing streak for the third trading day amid escalating trade war between the United States (US) and China.

The next major resistance for NZD/USD at 0.5905 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, NZD is expected to strengthen; the level to watch is 0.5905, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

And the backpedaling continues. In addition to the three-month tariff pause, the US government has now also expanded its list of goods exempt from reciprocal tariffs. This now includes all kinds of electronic goods.

EUR/CHF is testing a critical support level at 0.9210 after losing the 200-DMA earlier this month. A sustained break lower could open the door to deeper declines towards 0.9155 and 0.9050/0.9025, while resistance looms near the 200-DMA at 0.9410/0.9430, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

The Swiss franc benefited significantly from its safe-haven status after the announcement of the reciprocal US tariffs. However, the rapid appreciation is likely to be a thorn in the side of the SNB.

Gold staged a strong V-shaped recovery after an early April pullback, holding key support near $3135. Despite overbought signals, momentum remains intact, with eyes now on the next upside targets at $3290 and $3345/3370, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

Siver price (XAG/USD) clings to Friday’s gains near $32.30 during European trading hours on Monday. The white metal exhibits strength as the US Dollar (USD) continues to dive amid the intensifying trade war between the United States (US) and China.

The oil market is quiet in early morning trading today, after settling lower for a second consecutive week last week. News that the Trump administration is offering tariff exemptions on certain electronics products initially supported risk assets.

Further AUD strength is not ruled out, but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 0.6230/0.6330. In the longer run, AUD is likely to trade with an upward bias, potentially testing the key resistance at 0.6390, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Recent reports suggest that Chinese gold exchange-traded funds (ETF) inflows reached a fresh daily record late last week. Investors continue to rush towards the yellow metal amid intensifying trade tensions.

Last week’s FX volatility reached crisis-like levels, sparking fears of deeper market stress. A breakdown in traditional correlations and talk of coordinated dollar devaluation suggest global investors are bracing for structural shifts in US policy, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.