Trading news

Commerzbank’s Dr. Ralph Solveen notes that German industry orders rose 5% in March, with core orders up 5.1% and gains broadly spread across sectors, indicating an economic recovery was underway before the Middle East conflict.

National Bank of Canada (NBC) analysts highlight that Canada’s aggregate tariff burden still looks relatively low versus peers, but warns this advantage is eroding.

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change below forecasts (72B) in May 1: Actual (63B)

TD Securities strategist Bart Melek notes that the latest FOMC decision and the Iran-related Oil shock are pushing the Fed toward a neutral or even restrictive bias, delaying any rate cuts.

United States Construction Spending (MoM): -0.2% (February) vs -0.3%

United States Construction Spending (MoM) registered at 0.6% above expectations (0.2%) in March

United States Construction Spending (MoM) up to 0.6% in February from previous -0.3%

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed as traders await US/Iran headlines and Friday’s Canadian employment data. USD/CAD trades near 1.36, with spot still above Scotiabank’s fair value estimate around 1.3514.

Societe Generale’s team highlights that GBP/USD has edged higher, helped by lower Oil prices, risk correlations and Asian FX intervention-driven US Dollar (USD) selling. However, they stress that UK local elections and seasonal patterns pose downside risks.

Nomura's research analysts note that the the central bank of Sweden, Riksbank kept its policy rate at 1.75% in May, maintaining a wait-and-see stance as weak inflation offsets upside risks from global energy prices and the Iran war.

BNY's Geoff Yu highlights that Euro area retail trade shows modest growth while Eurozone construction PMI signals a sharp contraction and rising cost pressures. German manufacturing orders and services turnover are improving, but France’s trade deficit is widening on energy imports.

EUR/GBP trades flat on Thursday as traders remain cautious ahead of the UK local election results, while also assessing the prospects of a possible US-Iran deal aimed at ending the war in the Middle East.

TD Securities strategist Bart Melek highlights that the Strait of Hormuz disruption has removed 9–10 million bbl/d from the market, keeping Brent near $100/bbl and potentially pushing it above $150/bbl.

According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance increased to 200K for the week ending May 2.

Commerzbank analysts Michael Pfister and Norman Liebke argue that the Mexican Peso (MXN) is likely to weaken against the US Dollar (USD) in coming weeks as Banxico maintains a dovish stance despite rising inflation risks.

United States Unit Labor Costs down to 2.3% in 1Q from previous 4.4%

United States Continuing Jobless Claims below forecasts (1.8M) in April 24: Actual (1.766M)

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average fell from previous 207.5K to 203.25K in May 1

United States Initial Jobless Claims registered at 200K, below expectations (205K) in May 1

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that GBP/USD has risen above pre-war levels as United Kingdom (UK) local and Scottish elections test Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership.