Trading news

Societe Generale analysts describe Brent as having broken out of a large base and accelerated towards $120 before a steep pullback. The contract is holding above $81, with an upside gap near $93.80 and the $120 pivot high seen as a key hurdle.

ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report LME Aluminium trading near four-year highs as Middle East conflict-driven supply risks support prices. Rising cancelled warrants and accelerating stock withdrawals point to growing physical tightness, particularly at Port Klang.

BNP Paribas highlights that European Union exports to China fell sharply in 2025, while exports to nearby partners such as Türkiye, Morocco, Ukraine and the Balkans increased.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that Brent crude Oil briefly moved back above $100 per barrel after tanker attacks near Iraq and Dubai, reviving stagflation concerns and pressuring bonds and equities.

Portugal Global Trade Balance: €-7.457B (January) vs €-7.798B

Ireland Consumer Price Index (YoY) unchanged at 2.7% in February

Ireland Consumer Price Index (MoM) up to 0.9% in February from previous -0.9%

Ireland HICP (YoY) came in at 2.5%, above forecasts (2.4%) in February

Ireland HICP (MoM) registered at 0.8% above expectations (0.7%) in February

South Africa Manufacturing Production Index (YoY): -0.7% (January) vs -1.4%

EUR/GBP rebounds on Thursday, with the Euro (EUR) gaining 0.08% against the Pound Sterling (GBP), hovering around 0.8632 at the time of writing.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects the Central Bank of Turkey to keep rates on hold, seeing this as a tactical pause rather than a shift in strategy.

ING analysts see markets as overly aggressive on Bank of England expectations, with easing priced out after the Iran conflict. They note EUR/GBP’s negative correlation with Oil and warn that no rate changes are now expected by year-end.

Commerzbank’s Rates Strategist Hauke Siemßen argues that recent Oil-driven moves in Euro rates have given way to ECB-driven repricing. Comments from Kazimir and Schnabel have led forwards to discount a first 25 bp ECB rate hike by July, even as Commerzbank still forecasts no hikes this year.

Philip Wee at DBS Group Research highlights that the Australian Dollar has outperformed in G10 despite the Iran conflict. He attributes AUD strength to Reserve Bank of Australia policy divergence and a firmly hawkish stance.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $86.84 per troy ounce, up 1.28% from the $85.74 it cost on Wednesday.

Silver price (XAG/USD) pares its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around $86.90 per troy ounce during the European hours on Thursday.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes the Japanese Yen has underperformed since the Middle East conflict, with USD/JPY back near year-to-date highs.

ING’s FX team argues that while Europe is better positioned on gas than in 2022, the Euro remains vulnerable against the Dollar.

Societe Generale expects the CBRT to keep the one-week repo rate at 37.0% and maintain a hawkish stance, with effective funding already pushed to 40% via the overnight lending window. The bank notes heavy FX reserve use and liquidity draining to support the Lira and tight conditions.