Trading news

USD/JPY retreats on Monday and trades around 159.60 at the time of writing, down 0.44% on the day, after reaching a nearly 20-month high above 160.00 earlier in the day. The move lower follows renewed warnings from Japanese authorities about potential intervention in the foreign exchange market.

EUR/USD extends its losses on Monday, slipping back below the 1.1500 psychological mark as a broadly stronger US Dollar (USD) keeps the Euro (EUR) under pressure. At the time of writing, the pair trades near 1.1444, remaining on the back foot for a fifth consecutive day.

Societe Generale economists expect Euro area headline inflation to rise sharply in March, driven by higher energy costs, while core inflation eases slightly.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell said that there is tension between the Fed's two objectives, while participating in a moderated discussion at the Harvard University Principles of Economics Class in Cambridge, per Reuters.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report that the Japanese Yen opened very weak, with USD/JPY spiking near 160.50 before stabilizing after fresh warnings of potential “bold action” from Japan’s Vice Finance Minister Mimura.

National Bank of Canada’s (NBC) Angelo Katsoras outlines how an Iran conflict could severely disrupt Oil and gas markets if key energy infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz are targeted.

Stephen Miran, a member of the Federal Reserve (Fed), said that inflation expectations have not been affected yet by higher Oil prices. He told CNBC on Monday that he is still concerned about the labor market, even though the Fed can accommodate that.

United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index declined to -0.2 in March from previous 0.2

BNP Paribas analysts expect the US economy to grow above potential in 2026, with GDP at 2.7% and inflation at 3.1%, keeping the Federal Reserve on hold with the Fed Funds target range at 3.5%-3.75%.

Societe Generale economists note the United Kingdom (UK) markets still price around 70 bps of Bank of England (BoE) easing in 2026 despite Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) pushback, while the bank’s team expects no cuts this year.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades on the front foot on Monday, supported by a pullback in US Treasury yields as traders reassess the Federal Reserve’s policy path, weighing the impact of rising Oil prices on inflation against risks to economic growth.

TD Securities analysts anticipate the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) March Summary of Deliberations will maintain a dovish tone, stressing excess supply and disinflation.

AUD/USD trades around 0.6860 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.21% on the day, as investors adopt a cautious stance amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Commerzbank’s Senior Economist Dr. Ralph Solveen notes that Germany’s inflation rate rose from 1.9% to 2.7% in March 2026 as energy prices surged due to the war in Iran, while core inflation stayed at 2.5%.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that the Pound has been the second best performing G10 currency after the Dollar since the Middle East conflict, driven by a sharp repricing of Bank of England (BoE) policy expectations.

Gold (XAU/USD) regains traction on Monday, reversing earlier intraday losses, as escalating tensions in the Middle East and shifting interest rate expectations keep markets volatile. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,556 after touching a low of $4,419 during the Asian session.

ING’s Chief Economist Bert Colijn highlights that Eurozone sentiment weakened in March as the Middle East war hit confidence. The economic sentiment indicator dropped from 98.3 in February to 96.6, with businesses and consumers more worried about inflation.

In an interview with Fox News on Monday, United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Oil market is well supplied but added that any additional supply will be helpful, per Reuters.

MUFG analysts note that NOK has outperformed most European peers during the Middle East conflict, supported by Norway’s energy exporter status and a hawkish repricing of Norges Bank policy.

HSBC analysts note recent Japanese Yen (JPY) weakness is consistent with higher energy prices and Japan’s net Oil and gas deficit, but warns this macro backdrop could shift.