Trading news

ABN AMRO economists Rogier Quaedvlieg, Arjen van Dijkhuizen and Bill Diviney analyse how the US Supreme Court’s annulment of IEEPA-based tariffs modestly lowers overall US tariff levels while leaving them historically high.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell sharply on Monday, shedding around 700 points or 1.45% as fresh tariff uncertainty weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 slipped 0.6% while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.7%.

NZD/USD trades around 0.5965 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.20% on the day, despite the release of stronger-than-expected consumption data in New Zealand.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reiterates a constructive scenario for the Russian Ruble tied to a potential peace breakthrough and subsequent easing of key US and EU sanctions.

The GBP/USD registers gains of 0.31% on Monday after the US Supreme Court rejected Trump’s tariffs invoked using IEEPA national emergency. In the meantime, uncertainty about trade policies keeps the US Dollar on the back foot. The pair trades at 1.3507 after bouncing off daily lows of 1.3475.

USD/CHF struggles for direction on Monday as weaker-than-expected Swiss economic data undermines the Swiss Franc (CHF), while a softer US Dollar (USD) limits upside momentum. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.7738, down 0.16% on the day.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights a light CEE data calendar but focuses on Hungary, where the National Bank of Hungary is expected to restart its cutting cycle with a 25bp move to 6.25%.

United States Factory Orders (MoM) registered at -0.7%, below expectations (1.1%) in December

EUR/JPY trades around 182.50 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.15% on the day, as market participants adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of key macroeconomic releases in Europe and Japan.

TD Securities highlights PPI and consumer confidence as the key US data this week, with January PPI feeding into PCE forecasts.

ING’s FX team maintains a bearish Dollar baseline for 2026, expecting lower front-end US rates and softer US growth in the second half of the year to support EUR/USD.

Nomura’s Andrzej Szczepaniak expects Euro area HICP inflation to average just below the ECB’s 2.0% target in H1 2026, mainly on energy base effects, with little surprise versus consensus.

GBP/JPY trades with a mild negative bias on Monday, as a market holiday in Japan and a sparse UK economic calendar keep liquidity thin.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the Dollar started the week softer after the US Supreme Court tariff ruling, but stresses this move is not yet decisive.

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index : -0.21 (December) vs previous -0.04

National Bank of Canada’s (NBC) Angelo Katsoras and Jocelyn Paquet analyze how the Supreme Court ruling and subsequent White House response reshape US trade policy. They note the effective tariff rate briefly fell before a new 15% Section 122 tariff restored most of the prior burden.

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to 0.18 in December from previous -0.04

Rabobank’s Jane Foley highlights renewed Swiss Franc strength at the top of the G10 table following tariff-related uncertainty, underlining Switzerland’s classic safe haven credentials.

Derek Halpenny at MUFG argues that PM Takaichi’s focus on defence, economic security and investment-led growth, alongside efforts to move away from supplementary budgets, is supportive of a gradual BoJ policy normalisation.

EUR/GBP extends its range-bound trade on Monday, consolidating recent losses as repeated rejections near the multi-month resistance around 0.8750 continue to cap the upside.