Trading news

TD Securities strategists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence highlight that Canadian rates are opening weaker, with yields tracking US moves and geopolitical tensions. They expect CAD employment to show only a modest rebound and see imported volatility dominating.

United States ISM Services Prices Paid: 70.7 (March) vs 63

United States ISM Services PMI below forecasts (55) in March: Actual (54)

United States ISM Services New Orders Index rose from previous 58.6 to 60.6 in March

United States ISM Services Employment Index: 45.2 (March) vs previous 51.8

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong argue that market hopes for de-escalation in the US–Iran conflict look premature for Brent.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan highlights that Asia is highly exposed to potential energy flow disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. An extended energy shock would raise inflation, worsen current accounts and hurt growth, leaving KRW, PHP and THB vulnerable.

EUR/GBP trades with a negative bias on Monday as diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war lift market sentiment and support risk-sensitive currencies, with the British Pound (GBP) relatively outperforming the Euro (EUR).

TD Securities analysts expect US ISM Services to soften in March as geopolitical uncertainty from Iran weighs on sentiment. They forecast the index to fall to 54.2, reversing February’s gain, with most components slowing and employment slipping back into contraction.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim note that Indonesia March CPI slowed to 3.5% year-on-year, back within Bank Indonesia’s (BI) target range, but warns that Middle East conflict and higher freight costs pose upside inflation risks.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) softens amid improving market sentiment, with traders reacting to fresh diplomatic developments aimed at ending the US-Iran war. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,691, rebounding from an intraday low near $4,600.

The Pound (GBP) is trading higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday, favoured by a moderate optimism amid news of a peace plan to end the war in Iran.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes the Japanese Yen continues to weaken with USD/JPY near 160 as JGB yields hit multi‑decade highs and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains a hiking bias.

The United States (US) Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for March is scheduled to be published today at 14:00 GMT.

The Euro (EUR) is trading higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, favoured by a moderate improvement in market sentiment, amid news of a potential ceasefire in the Iran war.

The AUD/USD pair trades 0.5% higher to near 0.6930 during the European trading session on Monday. The Aussie pair strengthens as riskier assets trade firmly amid ongoing discussions between the United States (US) and Iran regarding an end to the Middle East war.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate Oil (WTI) depreciated about $5 from session highs on Monday, hitting lows near $101.00 per barrel, from $106.44 highs, weighed by news that the US and Iran might be bringing positions closer to a peace deal through international intermediaries.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $73.53 per troy ounce, up 0.67% from the $73.05 it cost on Friday.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that higher Oil prices and safe-haven flows have re-anchored the Dollar, reversing expectations for a steady USD decline.

Silver price (XAG/USD) holds gains after recovering daily losses, trading around $73.30 per troy ounce during the European hours on Monday.