Trading news

United States 4-Week Bill Auction remains at 3.62%

The British Pound retreats during the North American session after US President Donald Trump escalated the conflict, hinting that it will at least extend for 2 to 3 weeks. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.32144, down 0.40%.

Lorie Logan, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Dallas, said that the Fed should not let balance sheets distract them from the main mission, she also claimed that the balance sheet growth isn’t bad if it meets the publics need at a speech in her bank on Thursday.

BNY's EMEA Macro Strategist Geoff Yu argues that the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) March rate cut underestimated inflation risks linked to the regional conflict.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that improving PMIs in Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary had signalled a potential upswing, helped by Germany’s earlier recovery signs.

EUR/GBP edges higher on Thursday, though it lacks strong follow-through buying, as choppy price action persists amid heightened volatility across the FX space.

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at 36B, below expectations (38B) in March 27

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) analysts point out that recent and prospective tariff changes, higher energy prices and CUSMA renewal talks will shape Canada’s macro backdrop, relevant for the Canadian Dollar (CAD).

The AUD/USD fell to near the 0.6890 price region on Thursday, as markets turned sour amid escalating Middle East fighting and a surge in the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).

Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee to keep the repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance, focusing on stability after recent Oil and FX shocks.

ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note that Oil prices rebounded strongly, with Brent above $107/bbl and WTI near $106/bbl, after US President Donald Trump threatened a further escalation of the conflict with Iran.

TD Securities strategists Gennadiy Goldberg, Molly Brooks and Jan Nevruzi argue that proposed Basel III endgame and related US bank capital changes should ultimately support wider US swap spreads, particularly at the long end.

BNP Paribas analysts assess how the new energy shock from war in Iran and higher Oil and gas prices compares with 2022 for the Eurozone. They argue the current backdrop is less inflationary, with weaker demand and fewer supply constraints, and central banks now more reactive.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman argues the US Dollar’s response to the Middle East-driven energy shock has lost momentum. He cites lingering optimism about a relatively quick end to the conflict, a higher US policy risk premium, and yield spreads moving against the Dollar as key factors.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that Mexico’s strong US export performance and extensive USMCA compliance have cushioned the Mexican economy and the Peso from recent US tariff shocks.

GBP/JPY trades with a mild downside bias on Thursday, though it lacks strong follow-through selling and trims part of its intraday losses as markets remain volatile.

Singapore Manufacturing PMI: 50.5 (March) vs previous 50.6

Societe Generale analysts note the RBI has barred banks from offering INR NDFs to residents and non-residents to curb speculation, but they argue Rupee headwinds remain structural, tied to FPI outflows, Oil shock dynamics and slowing domestic growth, with 10-year yields seen heading toward 7.20–7.25

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ down to $775.4B from previous $776.8B

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses recent Swiss inflation data and implications for the Swiss Franc. Foley notes that low Swiss CPI reduces pressure on the SNB to cut rates below zero, while credible FX intervention and safe-haven demand should keep CHF firm.