Trading news

Thu Lan Nguyen at Commerzbank has revised Gold forecasts higher, now seeing USD 5,000 per ounce by end-2026 and USD 5,200 next year, despite a recent 15% drop.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Claire Fan and Abbey Xu expect Canadian GDP to be essentially flat in January after December’s 0.2% gain, with weakness concentrated in autos and housing but offset by energy and retail.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $68.50 on Friday at the time of writing, up 0.59% on the day, supported by renewed investor interest. Despite this uptick, the white metal remains within a broadly sideways trend, as market participants stay cautious amid an uncertain macroeconomic environment.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report EUR/USD has slipped slightly below yesterday’s low as Dollar strength persists. ECB data show moderating inflation expectations, while President Lagarde signaled caution on rate moves given energy-price risks.

ING’s Chris Turner notes that Banxico’s 25 bp rate cut to 6.75% came with largely unchanged inflation forecasts and a projection of a return to target in early 2027.

GBP/JPY trades flat on Friday after slipping earlier in the European session, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened amid rising intervention fears. The move comes as USD/JPY trades within striking distance of the 160.00 level, a key zone that previously prompted action from Japanese authorities.

United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations above forecasts (3.4%) in March: Actual (3.8%)

United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index came in at 51.7 below forecasts (54.1) in March

United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in line with forecasts (3.2%) in March

United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 53.3 below forecasts (54) in March

Commerzbank’s Dr. Vincent Stamer updates Euro area inflation projections incorporating the Iran War and associated energy shock. The bank expects higher Oil and natural gas prices to push headline inflation above 3% in 2026 before easing back to the ECB’s 2% target by 2027.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that global risk sentiment is deteriorating as Oil rises, equities and bonds fall, and the Dollar strengthens.

Halpenny stresses that the extension of Trump’s pause only on attacks against energy assets, combined with Iran’s limited tanker gestures, suggests the Strait of Hormuz will stay constrained.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is steady to slightly firmer versus the Dollar despite weak risk appetite, helped by a modest bid for commodity currencies.

Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to build on its gains on Friday as evolving geopolitical headlines surrounding the US-Israel war with Iran continue to drive volatility across global markets.

Nordea’s Jan von Gerich observes that recent equity weakness has not produced a stronger Dollar, suggesting its traditional safe-haven role is less dominant than before.

The US Dollar (USD) keeps marching higher against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on Friday.

ING’s Chris Turner argues that EUR/USD remains under pressure as investors position for further Middle East escalation and tighter global financial conditions. He notes that Sovereign Wealth Fund retrenchment and hawkish European Central Bank pricing weigh on the pair.

Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets team reviews Banxico’s March 26 decision to cut the overnight policy rate by 25bp to 6.75%. The move was a close call, with two governors preferring to keep rates at 7.00%.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang highlights a weakening technical backdrop for AUD/USD after the pair broke below a rising wedge and tested the Ichimoku cloud base near 0.6870.