Trading news

USD/JPY trades with a downside bias on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) gives up earlier gains amid hopes of a possible deal to end the US-Iran war, despite escalating tensions.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures gapped lower at Sunday's reopen toward the 49,100 area but ground steadily higher through the US session to settle only marginally below Friday's closing handle near 49,400.

EUR/USD added around 0.2% on Monday, finding a small lift off overnight lows close to 1.1730 to trade near 1.1790 during the European session.

Gold (XAU/USD) price begins the week on a lower note as risk appetite deteriorated amid the US-Iran conflict escalating over the weekend, while steady US Treasury yields and a rally in Oil prices capped the yellow metal’s advance. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,803, down 0.70%.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reviews the Turkish Lira (TRY) outlook ahead of the Turkish central bank’s (CBT’s) key rate decision. He notes inflation expectations for 2026 have risen and that officials appeared hesitant to signal hikes despite depleted reserves.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades lower on Monday, slipping to around $79.75 at the time of writing and losing 1.30% on the day.

Societe Generale strategists comment from Brazil’s central bank Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) officials describing March’s 25 bp Selic cut as the start of a calibration process rather than an easing cycle.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $87.10 per barrel on Monday, gaining 3.80% on the day at the time of writing, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East revive concerns about global supply disruptions.

GBP/USD recovers some ground after opening the week on a lower note, despite escalating tensions in the Middle East as the US seized an Iran-flagged vessel. At the same time, Tehran threatened to halt talks in Pakistan. The pair trades at 1.3525, up 0.13%.

USD/CAD edges lower on Monday, trimming earlier gains as shifting geopolitical headlines keep volatility elevated across FX markets, while traders also digested the latest Canadian inflation data. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3663, easing from an intraday high near 1.3709.

TD Securities analysts note that Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% m/m in March, lifting annual inflation to 2.4% y/y, driven mainly by higher gasoline and transportation costs.

Deutsche Bank’s analysts highlight sharp Brent Oil volatility as Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions drive price swings. They note Brent crude rebounded after a steep Friday selloff, but remains sensitive to ceasefire headlines and shipping probabilities.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the Pound (GBP) is steady versus the US Dollar (USD) after recovering from an initial reaction to renewed US–Iran tensions.

ING’s Chris Turner highlights a busy week of European Central Bank speakers before the blackout period, with officials signalling readiness to hike if needed but preferring more time. Markets have removed a 30 April move and see roughly 50% odds of a June hike, which ING expects.

MUFG's Lee Hardman highlights that the Pound (GBP) has underperformed alongside the US Dollar (USD) and Euro (EUR), leaving GBP/USD and EUR/GBP relatively stable near 1.3500 and 0.8700.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that Governor Ueda’s earlier hawkish signals have been tempered by more cautious comments at the IMF meetings, leading some forecasters to doubt an April Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Abbey Xu notes that Canadian headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.4% year-over-year, mainly on higher energy prices linked to conflict in the Middle East and tax distortions.

HSBC strategists highlight this year’s sharp volatility, with prices swinging between about USD 4,405 and USD 5,450 per ounce before stabilising near USD 4,800.

BNP Paribas expects Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to edge up to 1.6% in 2026 from 1.5% in 2025, supported by German fiscal measures, higher military spending and AI-related investment.

Quoting a senior Iranian official, Reuters reported that Iran is positively reviewing its participation in the next round of peace talks with the United States but no final decision has been made.