Trading news

Commerzbank notes that the Strait of Hormuz closure has also halted Qatari LNG shipments, normally one-fifth of global supply, driving TTF natural gas to almost EUR 70/MWh.

Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja notes that UK GDP and labour market data have come in weaker than the Bank of England’s February projections, while January CPI surprised to the upside.

Mexico Industrial Output (YoY) below forecasts (1.7%) in January: Actual (-1.1%)

The US Dollar Index (DXY) extends its advance on Friday, trading around 100.10 at the time of writing and gaining 0.35% for the day.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage highlights that Japanese authorities are stepping up FX warnings as USD/JPY trades just below 160.

TD Securities expects robust US core PCE at 0.30% month-on-month and a softer headline, alongside a rebound in JOLTS job openings to 6.8 million, slightly above consensus.

India Bank Loan Growth: 14.5% (March 2) vs 13.6%

India FX Reserves, USD: $716.81B (March 2) vs previous $728.49B

In an interview with Fox News aired on Friday, United States (US) President Donald Trump said that they are going to be hitting Iran "very hard" over the next week.

Nordea analysts Jan von Gerich and Tuuli Koivu expect the European Central Bank to keep rates unchanged at its 19 March meeting, even as upside risks to inflation and ECB rate hikes increase.

TD Securities’ US macro team, including Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir, expects the FOMC to keep the Fed funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in March and stay on hold through Q3 2026.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports that GBP/USD has dropped below 1.3300 and remains vulnerable after UK GDP unexpectedly stalled in January. Zero monthly growth leaves output below the Bank of England’s Q1 projection.

NZD/USD extends its decline on Friday, trading around 0.5820 at the time of writing and down 0.58% on the day. The pair records a fourth consecutive daily loss as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid rising geopolitical tensions and renewed inflation concerns.

MUFG’s Head of Research Derek Halpenny notes the US Dollar has broken above the 100 level on DXY and pushed USD/JPY to fresh year-to-date highs, with Oil stabilizing near USD 100.

Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) below forecasts (0.6%) in January: Actual (-1.5%)

Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) below forecasts (1.4%) in January: Actual (-1.2%)

TD Securities strategists Paul Soumalias and Alex Loo report that global equity funds kept strong aggregate inflows near recent levels, but with a sharp shift in regional allocation. South Korean equities drew record weekly inflows, while Japan saw its largest since 2013.

Commerzbank economists Jörg Krämer and Marco Wagner argue that the ECB is likely to keep its deposit rate at 2.0% next week and, in their main scenario of a short Middle East war, throughout 2026.

China New Loans below forecasts (979B) in February: Actual (900B)

China M2 Money Supply (YoY) above forecasts (8.8%) in February: Actual (9%)