USD/CAD: A bearish “shooting star” on the daily chart – Scotiabank

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is a little firmer this morning but barely so. The CAD is a relative underperformer on a day of broad US Dollar (USD) softness, with the MXN losing ground, amid focus on Trump’s support for wide-ranging tariffs in his Bloomberg interview, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Mixed momentum signals suggest choppy range trade

“CAD is a little firmer this morning but barely so. It’s a relative underperformer on a day of broad USD softness, with the MXN losing ground, amid focus on Trump’s support for wide-ranging tariffs in his Bloomberg interview.”

“Yesterday’s Canadian CPI data were mixed but a central bank that seems keen on easing rates at the moment will likely focus mostly on the lower than expected (-0.1% M/M) headline read than anything else. Swaps pricing shows a 25bps cut on the 24th is more or less fully priced in (21-22bps), nudging US/Canada term spreads out somewhat (2Y cash bond spreads wider to 67bps).”

“Spot losses from the intraday high yesterday left a bearish 'shooting star' candle signal on the daily chart, suggesting a nearterm peak for the USD may be in place. Modest intraday losses for the USD appear to have stalled around 1.3655/60 today, however. Mixed momentum signals suggest choppy range trade may extend a little more between 1.36/1.37.”