THB: Has the scope to fall further to 34 on a weaker USD – DBS

The THB has retraced over 80% of this year’s losses against the USD, DBS Senior FX Strategist Philip Wee notes.

Bears may push towards 34 on a weaker USD

“In the first four months of this year, USD/THB rose from 34.0 to 37.3 from the Fed’s ‘high for longer’ rates stance to push back the market’s aggressive rate cut bets. In early August, the Bank of Thailand announced plans to lift the annual outflow limit to $200k from $50k, reflecting its confidence in the THB’s stability.”

“Despite the Thai constitutional court removing Srettha Thavisin as prime minister last Wednesday, USD/THB closed below 35 last week for the first time since mid-August 2023. USD/THB has the scope to fall further to 34 on a weaker USD, and the kingdom has moved quickly to defuse the political leadership uncertainty.” 

“Over the weekend, Thai King Maha Vajiralongkorn granted former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra a royal pardon and appointed his daughter, Paetongtarn, the new prime minister.”