EUR: German politics not harming the Euro – ING

EUR/USD found some backing yesterday and given that part of its weakness at the end of August was likely due to month-end flows, support levels may prove sturdier at the start of September. Incidentally, a 2-year EUR:USD spread at -100bp is still some 20-25bp tighter than the end of July, and continues to offer a technical counterargument to bearish bets on EUR/USD, ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.

EUR/USD to hold above 1.10 short term

“Some of those bearish bets are related to the stagnant economic situation in Germany, but it seems that investors were rapidly reassured of the political situation after all other German parties appeared determined to keep the far-right AfD away from power after their win in Thuringia.”

“At the same time, the ruling coalition appears increasingly weak, and we cannot exclude some damage to the Euro from EU politics down the road. Especially when adding a likely turbulent EU budget season this fall.”

“For now, those like us seeing EUR/USD holding above 1.10 will be happy with some support ahead of key US data later this week. In the eurozone, the data calendar is empty today, and the only scheduled ECB speaker is German hawk Joachim Nagel.”