EUR: The breakout feels imminent – ING

Having bounced around on yesterday's US initial claims data, EUR/USD is back below the recent highs at 1.1180, ING’s FX strategist Chris Turner notes.

EUR/USD may trade in a 1.1150-1.1200 range today

“We have mentioned this before, but EUR/USD looks to be on the verge of breaking out of a low volatility range. For example, a weekly close above 1.1160 (the upper twenty-month Bollinger Band) warns of a sizable upside breakout.  At this stage in the US cycle, we believe an upside EUR/USD breakout is entirely possible.”

“There seem no immediate catalysts for that upside breakout today given the lack of US data and only second-tier eurozone releases. Let's look out for a speech from Christine Lagarde at 17CET today.” 

“The market still has 6bp of an October ECB cut priced - which should come out of the market at some point. A 1.1150-1.1200 EUR/USD range may well be seen today, though we retain an upside bias.”