DXY: ISM Mfg today – OCBC

US Dollar (USD) a touch firmer this morning in quiet trade as US markets were closed for Labour Day holiday yesterday. DXY last at 98.35 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

2-way risks likely

"Focus this week shifts to ISM manufacturing (Tuesday); JOLTS job openings report (Wednesday); ADP employment, ISM services, initial jobless claims (Thursday) and more importantly, NFP report (Friday). Softer data print may potentially change the narrative and weigh on USD. In particular, we will be on the lookout for any pick-up in discussion for a jumbo 50bp cut at Sep FOMC."

"Mild bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI was flat. 2-way risks likely. Resistance at 98.70 (100 DMA) and 99.60 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low). Support at 97.50, 97.10 levels."

"Data surprises (if any) this week should see reactive trades. On Fedspeaks, Musalem, Williams and Goolsbee are lined up this week before Fedspeaks go into a communication blackout on 6 September."