IEA foresees massive oversupply on the oil market – Commerzbank

The International Energy Agency expects a massive supply surplus on the global oil market of 3.33 million barrels per day on average in the coming year, based on its forecasts, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Oil prices fall by almost 2% on Thursday

"That would be another 360,000 barrels per day more than predicted a month ago and was only exceeded during the coronavirus pandemic five years ago. The upward revision is solely due to higher supply. The demand forecast was even revised slightly upward."

"However, oil supply is expected to rise even more sharply. The IEA expects supply growth of more than 1 million barrels per day for both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries next year. Oil prices subsequently fell by almost 2% yesterday, giving up the gains made since the beginning of the week."

Sep 12, 2025

USD/JPY steady in tight range – BBH

USD/JPY trades mid-range after the US Treasury and Japan’s Finance Ministry reaffirmed that exchange rates should be market determined. The rare joint statement, the first since 2022 to mention FX, underscored opposition to competitive devaluations, BBH FX analysts report.

NZD/USD: Unlikely to be able to break above 0.5990 – UOB Group

There is room for New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to rise further, but it is unlikely to be able to break above 0.5990 today. In the longer run, NZD could break above 0.5990; the scope for further advance may be limited, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.