USD/CHF Price Forecast: Momentum builds as price presses against 100-day SMA
- USD/CHF hovers near a one-month high as markets weigh firm US labour data against a modest rise in Swiss inflation.
- Improving momentum lifts the technical outlook, with RSI back above 50 and MACD turning positive.
- A break above the 100-day SMA could open the door toward the upper end of the broader consolidation range.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) trades marginally higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as markets weigh firm US weekly labour-market data against a modest pick-up in Swiss inflation. At the time of writing, USD/CHF trades around 0.7991, hovering near its highest level since December 11.
Data released by the US Department of Labor showed Initial Jobless Claims rose modestly to 208,000 in the week ended January 3, slightly below market expectations of 210,000 and up from the previous week’s revised reading of 200,000.
The US Dollar draws additional support after data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau showed the Goods and Services Trade deficit narrowed sharply to $29.4 billion in October, undershooting forecasts of $58.9 billion and improving significantly from the prior month’s revised $48.1 billion deficit.
In Switzerland, figures released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office showed inflation steadied at the end of the year. The Consumer Price Index was unchanged in December after falling 0.2% in November, above expectations for a 0.1% decline. Annual inflation edged up to 0.1% from 0.0%, matching forecasts.
The figures reinforced expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep interest rates unchanged in the months ahead, while easing concerns over a potential return to negative interest rates.
From a technical perspective, the outlook for USD/CHF is turning more constructive, with momentum improving as the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs back above the 50 mark after recently flirting with oversold territory.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands above the Signal line, with the histogram positive and widening near the zero line, suggesting strengthening bullish momentum.
Still, the pair remains trapped within a broader consolidation range near its lowest levels since 2011, which has largely guided price action since August 2025.
On the daily chart, prices are currently testing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.7984. A clear break above this level would reinforce bullish pressure and open the door toward the 200-day SMA near 0.8070, which sits close to the upper boundary of the broader consolidation range.
On the downside, a failure to clear the 100-day SMA could stall the recent recovery and expose USD/CHF to renewed downside pressure, with the lower end of the range near 0.7850 acting as the next key support.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.