NZD: RBNZ hawkish hold to support currency – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Global Head of Markets Strategy Elias Haddad expects the RBNZ to keep the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% while updating its projections. With inflation still elevated and the labor market improving, he anticipates the bank will bring forward its projected hikes. Swaps pricing of around 50 bps of tightening over twelve months is seen as supportive for NZD.

OCR on hold but hikes signaled

"The RBNZ is widely expected to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% (today). The focus instead will be on the RBNZ’s updated OCR forecast."

"In November, the RBNZ projected the OCR to remain around 2.25% throughout 2026 followed by nearly 50bps of rate hikes in 2027."

"The RBNZ is expected to bring forward its OCR hike projections because New Zealand inflation is running hot and the job market is improving."

"The swaps curve implies 50bps of hikes in the next twelve months which is NZD supportive."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)