China: Growth slowdown and export risks – BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas analysts see Chinese GDP growth at 5.0% in 2025, easing moderately in 2026 as domestic demand weakens and property sector stress persists. Authorities are expected to maintain supportive but cautious fiscal and monetary policies, prioritizing private consumption. Chinese exports remain competitive near term, but analysts warn of new protectionist measures and only slight relief from deflationary pressures in 2026.

Supportive policy, rising trade headwinds

"Economic growth reached 5.0% in 2025, like in 2024, and is projected to decelerate moderately in 2026."

"The authorities will maintain supportive fiscal and monetary policies, and the strengthening of private consumption is one of their priorities."

"However, the central bank and the government will continue to implement cautious policy measures."

"In the short term, Chinese goods are expected to remain competitive, but the export sector should suffer from new protectionist measures."

"Deflationary pressures persist."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)