NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi fails to hold onto gains

• NZD/USD retreats to 0.5930 after reversing intraday gains as the US Dollar recovers late in the American session.
• Oil prices pullback as market expects end to war with Iran.
• Markets await US Consumer Price Index on Wednesday and Business NZ PMI from New Zealand on Thursday.

The NZD/USD pair is trading near the 0.5930 price region, reversing its intraday gains late in the American session. At the start of the day, the US Dollar (USD) lost momentum after United States (US) President Donald Trump suggested late Monday that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could end soon.

Oil prices surged sharply since the US and Israel launched a war with Iran amid concerns over Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Oil retreated after Trump’s remarks and reports that G7 countries are considering a coordinated release of strategic Oil reserves if prices rebound higher. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $85 a barrel, easing from a three-year peak near $120 posted on Monday. The Iran war is still ongoing, and the market sentiment could take a turn for the worse, reviving USD strength.

Investors’ focus now shifts to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for Wednesday and the upcoming New Zealand Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

Short-term technical outlook

In the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5929. The near-term bias is neutral as price holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) but below the 100-period SMA. Both are flattening, although the 20-period SMA has turned slightly higher just beneath spot. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands around 52, indicating neutral-to-positive momentum that aligns with a modest recovery stance.

Immediate support is located at 0.5925, the daily low, followed by 0.5907, Monday's low. A sustained hold above these levels would keep buyers in control and leave scope for a grind higher toward initial resistance at 0.5965, the weekly top. A break above 0.5965 would open the door to a more decisive recovery phase, while a drop below 0.5907 would negate the nascent bullish bias and re-expose the broader downtrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)