Brent: Conflict keeps upside risk in focus – MUFG

Derek Halpenny at MUFG underlines that Brent’s sharp pullback from near USD 120 to below USD 105 has been driven by hopes of conflict de-escalation, but he questions its durability. He points to ongoing attacks, curtailed supply, falling seaborne inventories and potential US sanctions relief on Iranian Oil, arguing that higher Brent prices from here are more likely than a deeper retracement.

Supply constraints challenge price retracement

"After nearly hitting USD 120 p/bl Brent crude oil fell below the USD 105-level yesterday on hope that the conflict could de-escalate."

"So it’s hard to be convinced on the prospect of the retracement in crude oil prices lasting and it probably wouldn’t take much to see investor concerns escalate and crude to take another lurch higher."

"Brent is drifting higher again today as supply continues to be curtailed."

"Bloomberg is reporting data from Vortex indicating the rapid decline in crude oil in storage at sea which could soon result in the US formally lifting sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea."

"At this juncture higher oil prices from current levels seems more likely than a further retracement lower."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)