Brent: Futures curve signals easing shock – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analysts note that Brent Oil has retreated below $100 as hopes grow for a US–Iran deal, easing fears of a stagflationary shock. They highlight that spot Brent is back under $98, while the 6‑month and 12‑month futures trade significantly lower, suggesting markets still expect a temporary conflict and a normalization in energy prices.

Brent curve points to temporary conflict

"Amidst all that newsflow, the market focus was on the prospect of further talks, which helped to keep oil prices beneath $100/bbl. So Brent crude was only up +4.37% by the close yesterday at $99.36/bbl, paring back its stronger gains from earlier in the session."

"The market optimism has continued this morning, with oil prices falling back amidst growing hopes that the US and Iran might still reach some kind of deal. Indeed, Brent crude is down another -1.61% overnight to $97.76/bbl, which is easing fears about a stagflationary shock, and significantly, the S&P 500 (+1.02%) closed above its pre-strike level on February 27."

"We can also see that investors are still expecting a temporary conflict, as the energy futures curve is sharply downward sloping, with the 6-month Brent future at $83.55/bbl this morning, and the 12-month future at $78.57/bbl."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)