CZK: CNB stance supports yields – Societe Generale

Societe Generale analysts highlight that the Czech National Bank (CNB) is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.50% despite a rise in headline inflation to 2.5% year-on-year in April. Governor Michl has emphasized maintaining positive real rates to support savings. Money markets fully price two CNB hikes over six months, likely keeping 2-year yields elevated.

CNB hikes priced as inflation edges higher

"Elsewhere in CEEMEA [Central & Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa], the Czech national bank is largely expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 3.50% today shrugging off acceleration in headline inflation figure to a six-month high reading of 2.5% yoy in April."

"Governor Michl earlier this week stressed on the need to keep the real rates positive to encourage savings."

"The money markets are fully pricing two CNB rate hikes in the next six months (in line with the ECB)."

"Hawkish CNB hints today should keep the front-end 2y local bond yields elevated."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)