US Dollar: Downside risks for DXY as geopolitics dominate – OCBC

OCBC’s FX Christopher Wong notes US Dollar Index (DXY) traded slightly softer despite a strong US jobs report, as markets focus more on geopolitics, Oil and Fed repricing. He highlights modest downside risks with key support at 97.50/60 and further levels at 97.10 and 96.75, while resistance is seen around 98.10/30 and 98.70. Forecasts keep DXY broadly rangebound into 2027.

Dollar pressured by risk sentiment shifts

"While payrolls [NFP] matter, the USD appears more sensitive to geopolitical risk, oil and the associated inflation/Fed repricing channel."

"Markets are unlikely to price in a material reset in US-China relations, but a softer rhetoric, tariff restraint or clearer negotiating path could still be sufficient to support risk appetite and weigh on the USD."

"DXY traded slightly softer last week."

"Key support around 97.50/60 levels (double bottom, 61.8% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high) is key."

"Break out puts next support closer to 97.10, 96.75 (76.4% fibo) Resistance at 98.10/30 levels (50% fibo, 21 DMA), 98.70 (38.2% fibo)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)