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Forex: USD/CHF still sideways, around 0.9100 at US session

Around the time of the NY opening, the USD/CHD rose back above the 0.9100 handle and reached a session high at 0.9116, but the US data brought the market back to the psychological level, where it still trades. Non-manufacturing PMI surprised the market with a rise from 56.5 to 57.3 in January, beating the consensus of a drop to 55.8.

Earlier, SNB's Board Member Zurbruegg wants to rise rates once growth recovers, but it might take a while until that happens. For now, the central bank is commited to low and stable inflation, which is being accomplished with no imminent pressures. In regard to the EUR/CHF peg, the increased balance sheet is "a concern".

"Near-term price action moves in a sideways / consolidative mode, as bounce of 0.9020 low lacks momentum for clearance of initial barrier at 0.9120, Fib 50% of 0.9225/0.9020 descend", wrote Windsor Brokers analyst Slobodan Drvenica. "Hourly structure is neutral, while prevailing negative tone on 4h chart, keeps the downside favored, unless 0.9120 and 0.9160, Fib 61.8% / 55 day EMA, are cleared", he added, pointing only to a break above the latter to avert immediate bearish scenario and open way for stronger recovery towards 0.9200.

Forex Flash: Buy EUR/CHF – Nomura

Nomura Strategist Geoffrey Kendrick believes that the time is right to go long EUR/CHF.
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Forex Flash: Political drama unfolds across Europe – Deutsche Bank

January's are virtually always risk-on so that took care of itself, however February had the build-up to the Italian elections and our expectations for the first risk-off period for the year. Well no-one could have also predicted the political drama unfolding in Spain and that has played a big part but together events in Italy and Spain are a reminder of how dependent they are on political cohesion to ensure that the ECB fire break can be activated smoothly if needed. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “A political vacuum or worse still a change in direction will make any future ECB intervention more difficult.”
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