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Forex: EUR/USD holds at 1.3640/50 ahead of US NFP

The market is now waiting for news coming from the US, particularly the January Nonfarm Paryolls, due at 13:30 GMT. The European morning rally was capped at 1.3675, from where it retreated on news of less LTRO repayments than expected: “€3.5bn of banks’ 3-year LTRO borrowings will be repaid next week—in line with our expectations of small weekly payments but much lower than the Reuters poll expectations of €20bn”, wrote TD Securities analyst Tim Davis.

The setback sent the EUR/USD to 1.3640/50, where it still holds. TD Securities analysts see the market positioning for a strong NFP headline number: “This suggests a high probability of a disappointment, which could trigger a reassessment on the economic outlook, possibly resulting in some retracement of the recent sell-off”, said analyst Tim Davis, pointing to a less important ISM manufacturing PMI this time, overshadowed by the NFP.

“Yesterday's corrective pattern ended at 1.3540 low and the uptrend has been renewed, targeting 1.3780 area”, wrote Deltastock.com analyst Stoyan Mihaylov, pointing to key support at 1.3590 and crucial on the downside at 1.3540.

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