Forex Flash: USD/JPY reaches head and shoulder reversal target on the week – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts point to the JPY as a big mover in the Asian session: "Speculation that the new Japanese PM Abe will appoint a new BoJ Governor more aggressive on easing measures was the main impetus, but disappointing jobless data and household spending figures did not help the tone", wrote analysts Shaun Osborne and Greg Moore, pointing to a USD/JPY at fresh highs since 2010.

"The impressively sharp move in USD/JPY suggests to us that there is plenty of potential for a decent pullback, and we have pointed out the potential over the past few weeks", they said, adding that the pair has reached the head and shoulders reversal target on the weekly charts (an impressive feat for only two months), "which to us seems to be a level to get a bit more skeptical about".

Feb 1, 2013

Forex: EUR/USD briefly dips below 1.3600

Following a phase of hesitation in the wake of a solid US employment report, EUR/USD came under pressure and turned lower, having lost over 80 pips within the last hours amid profit-taking post NFP.

Forex Flash: EUR appreciation could weigh on exports and growth – Goldman Sachs

Last October, we set out our views on the evolution of the single monetary policy in 2013. “In line with our macroeconomic forecasts, our base case was for unchanged ECB policy rates throughout 2013 (and indeed to the second half of 2015). The biggest risk we identified to this view came not from further weakness in economic activity (whether in the periphery or the core) or even the emergence of growing deflationary pressures.” notes the Economics Research Team at Goldman Sachs. Rather, we saw the most likely driver of a rate cut as being a brutal appreciation of the Euro exchange rate (to employ the language of former ECB President Trichet).