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Forex Flash: EUR/USD still maintains bullish forecast in 2013 – ANZ

The euro had a brisk start to the year rising nearly 5.0% on a TWI basis last month. Against the yen, the euro rose 10% in January and in the context of Japan’s overt desire for a weaker exchange rate, this has elicited sporadic comments on the strength and appropriateness of the euro’s rise.

“Despite the correction over the past 24 hours however, we remain constructive on the euro and regard dips as buying opportunities. Our bullish forecast is that the EUR/USD anticipates will sustain appreciation over the course of this year and into 2014”. writes the ANZ Research Team.
Driving the recovery in the currency are improving risk appetite amongst investors and a re-weighting towards euro zone (EZ) assets as confidence in the sustainability of the single currency has risen. Underpinning this have been the sustained recovery in financial markets sparked by the ECB’s financial wizardry, national governments’ commitment to fiscal sustainability and the commencement of banking union.

None of these factors are going to disappear, and they provide a powerful foundation for the euro. Greece ran a primary budget surplus of €434M in 2012 against a deficit of €3.5B in 2011. In January, Ireland ran a budget surplus of €704M against a deficit of €394M a year earlier. The commitment to fiscal discipline in the peripherals is admirable in the face of the most testing economic conditions since WW2.

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