Forex: EUR/USD eyes 1.3600 on rumors

The euro posted fresh highs above 1.3580 on Tuesday after rumors that the single currency would not be strong enough to trigger an intervention by the ECB are keeping alive the buying interest.

“The EUR/USD responded at trendline support beneath 1.3500 and the aggressive impulsive bullish count is valid above 1.3403. Look higher. Potential resistance before Friday’s high comes in from the 61.8% retracement of the decline at 1.3613”, underlines J.Saettele, Senior Technical Strategist at DailyFX.

At the moment, the pair is up 0.55% at 1.3589 with the next resistance at 1.3660 (high Feb.4) ahead of 1.3664 (Upper Bollinger).
On the downside, a breach of 1.3415 (low Jan.29) would open the door to 1.3377 (MA21d).

Feb 5, 2013

Forex Flash: Political drama unfolds across Europe – Deutsche Bank

January's are virtually always risk-on so that took care of itself, however February had the build-up to the Italian elections and our expectations for the first risk-off period for the year. Well no-one could have also predicted the political drama unfolding in Spain and that has played a big part but together events in Italy and Spain are a reminder of how dependent they are on political cohesion to ensure that the ECB fire break can be activated smoothly if needed. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “A political vacuum or worse still a change in direction will make any future ECB intervention more difficult.”

Forex Flash: EUR/USD still maintains bullish forecast in 2013 – ANZ

The euro had a brisk start to the year rising nearly 5.0% on a TWI basis last month. Against the yen, the euro rose 10% in January and in the context of Japan’s overt desire for a weaker exchange rate, this has elicited sporadic comments on the strength and appropriateness of the euro’s rise.